Sorry Colts Fans

TRIGGER WARNING FOR COLTS FANS: I’m sorry colts fans, but Darius Leonard isn’t the Defensive Rookie of the Year.

I hear you, LEAGUE LEADER in tackles, 7 sacks and 1 INT and in a head to head matchup vs. Vanderesch he proved he was the better linebacker. With all of that being said, Derwin James is the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Being a big sports analytics person I’ll give you some breakdowns.

1) Each of the last 11 DROY have been first round draft picks. Derwin James was drafted in the first round with the 17th pick and Leonard was picked in the second round 36th pick. History does not favor Leonard.

2) Two of the last three DROY awards went to DB’s. 2018-Marshon Lattimore and 2016 Marcus Peters have started this trend of DB dominating games in their first year. This again bodes well for DJ as he is is the hybrid Strong Safety.

3) An ILB hasn’t won the award since 2013. This is perhaps the most telling statistic of all. Perhaps the best linebacker in the league, Luke Kuechly, was the last middle linebacker to win the award. Again, history going against Colt’s nations baby Darius Leonard.

Derwin James has 93 tackles as a safety. Now, football knowledge tells us that a safety having nearly 100 tackles doesn’t mean great things for your football team. However, Derwin is playing for one of the best teams in the AFC. Which proves the point that him having 93 tackles is a historical mark for the safety position.

To put in perspective how well he is playing: the most tackles Hall of Famer’s Troy Polamalu and Colts Legend Bob Sanders ever had was 96. He is about to break 96 next week. He is surrounded by dogs and he is tackling in space at a high rate and recording 3.5 sacks along with 3 interceptions and 12 PBUs. His tackles are not so much dependent on scheme and rather than reading and reacting. Which is unlike Leonard which I will highlight next.

Now Colts fans will argue by saying this is exactly why Darius Leonard should win the award. However, as many of us at Hanover know and football players in general, just because you have a record number of tackles doesn’t mean you’re a great player. Certain schemes tend to lead linebackers into having more tackles. There are certain things that the colts do that help him record this high pace of tackles. The first thing the colts do is play a lot of Tampa two in a under front. Where the ILB plays the middle of the field hole between the safeties. This means that any crossing route that is caught, the tackle will probably be recorded by Darius Leonard.

The second thing that has helped Darius is the change to the new defensive coordinator for the Colts Matt Eberflus’s scheme. Eberflus came from Dallas where ILB like Sean Lee made his mark at ILB. The scheme shows that playing the Defensive Tackles at both the 1 and 3 techniques allows for linebackers to run through holes and play downhill. Instead of DT’s playing two gaps (ie 3-4 defense under Pagano) Leonard now only has one gap to worry about. Thus allowing him to plug the A gap.

This new scheme has allowed Leonard to thrive. However, we have seen Eberflus’s scheme work for countless other linebackers. So I’m not trying to say it’s a system thing, but it’s a system thing.

Now I should say with all of this, Leonard is a hell of a talent and the Colts stole him. However, his number of tackles and stats doesn’t mean he should be the DROY. Derwin James has clearly cemented himself as the leader in the pack in the DROY race and I do not see it changing. Derwin is leading the 8th ranked passing defense in the NFL while still having 93 tackles.

You can attack me all you want colts fans but I am a neutral party in the NFL and have no bias. If I’m a betting man, like grandpa Shoe, I am taking that money line -200 on DJ to win DROY. Tell me what you think either @kalebgrabert or on the comment section!